September 18, 2007

On negotiating in Afghanistan

This is an excellent article, I thought. The only quibble I would have is that dating the start of the Afghan insurgency to the start of 2002 or thereabouts is oversimplifying. NATO/US casualty figures indicate a start for a serious insurgent push to challenge NATO forces for control of the south and east of the country starting in the summer of 2005. Before then, Afghanistan was really pretty quiet, by historical standards, for over three full years. (There were fewer than 100 total NATO and US combat fatalities in the 43 months prior to June, 2005.) I'd have said we're just going into our third year. Which would suggest that we're definitely too early, at least in theoretical terms, to be expecting a negotiated solution yet.

Posted by BruceR at 12:11 PM