August 05, 2005

Insurgency size estimates, redux

Gen. Keane's estimate of 150,000 "thugs and Baathists" in Iraq should probably be compared with previous size estimates. For instance, in January, intelligence officials were saying 200,000 passive supporters. Also note that this is despite the Brookings Institute claim of some 40,000 insurgents "detained or killed" over the last 27 months.

It should be noted that all the insurgency size numbers habitually exclude the Shia, and should be assumed to be Sunni-only, despite the Sadr uprisings, et al.

Posted by BruceR at 12:48 PM