October 30, 2005
We Will Be There Anyway
Brian Dunn is a tad bitter about Russian/Iranian cooperation on satellite launches and speculates that when the Iranians decide to march north, we'll just sit on our hands.
Dunn gets some things right and a march north can make sense for Iran (if Iran's current government lasts a couple of decades while Russia weakens), we won't sit on our hands. Russia will do what Russia usually does in these circumstances. They'll raise the banner of Orthodoxy and Christendom and the US will respond.
The US will respond for two reasons. Orthodox allies like Romania will be saddling up, marching, and calling in their chits with the US. But the big prize for the US will be a chance to demonstrate that things have changed, that western christianity gives a damn about eastern and will provide solidarity when the chips are down.
I hope the scenario never plays out to see who's right but we absolutely won't sit on our hands.
October 27, 2005
Public Service Printers
Glenn Reynolds asks:
Glenn, you're wrong. You can do such a thing for your most likely laptop targets, Mac and Windows OS ones. It's not necessarily a bright idea though. Your only security would consist of the transmission strength of your wireless network. If it were too strong, you could have random strangers printing things to your network. If that's what you want, though, you certainly can do it. Whatever print server you're using would just have to have drivers loaded for all the OS targets you want to support. Computers routinely ask the print server if it has drivers for a strange printer and will load those drivers if they can.
What's really fun is the legal conundrum that you've set up. Setting up a system as a public service like this is supposed to be impossible. Let's say that somebody randomly came up to Glenn Reynold's front door, got a signal, and printed an advertisement on Glenn's printer. Right now, that would be a pretty stiff crime if the printer owner didn't want that print to happen but it would be just fine if the owner was ok about it. There is, however, no recognized way for the guy at the front door to examine the open network and determine whether he can use the network resource or not. You've essentially got a property that isn't posted against trespass but there is no reasonable way to knock on the front door without risking some pretty severe legal penalties.
October 25, 2005
Death from cirhossis may be a thing of the past soon. Such good news will save countless lives including an awful lot of creative types who famously drink themselves to death. The cure isn't getting trumpeted widely in those same circles and it seems a curious thing. It's an Adult Stem Cell (ASC) cure, of course, as all the real practical work is turning out from the ASC research pathway.
Embryonic Stem Cell (ESC) research gets a tremendous amount of press but doesn't provide any real cures. ASC provides cures but gets little to no press coverage trumpeting its triumphs.
Curious. It's almost as if there were an agenda there...
October 23, 2005
I oppose the Miers nomination. I came down finally in opposition when I read about TTLB's poll and figured I've got to get off the fence. She's probably a decent vote on Roe but Roe isn't the only problem facing the nation's judiciary and my feel is that Miers is actually worse than O'Conner on several of these issues. I'm not sure that she'd have come out as far against affirmative action as O'Conner did.
What's more, I don't think President Bush is going to get his nomination approved. The crony problem, the mishandling of her presentation to the Senate and the country at large both conspire to make her thin resume carry more weight. With so many better qualified nominees being held up or voted down in the blood sport that nominations have become, what justification is there for letting her get past? Fortunately, Miers is a loyalist. If she sees that her nomination is hurting the President, I think she can be counted on to do the right thing and withdraw.
October 20, 2005
And in my Day Job
Ah, I finally got OpenGroupware configured on RedHat Enterprise Linux 3. Unfortunately, the instructions to do it simply weren't adequate. I ended up running through three different sets of instructions and, by trial and error, finding out which ones worked for me and which ones didn't. Now I have my own set. Here they are for posterity:
1. Download RedHat Enterprise Linux v3 (get a 30 day free account if you don't have the budget for a subscription)
5. Install postgresql, which RedHat has annoyingly renamed Red Hat Database (rhdb). Make sure the postgresql server rpm is installed.
8. download the red hat OGO rpms here and follow the instructions. I downloaded Third Party, Sope, and OpenGroupware and downloaded it to /root/ogo. I then
9. One of the things downloaded is the database schema so go back to the database install instructions and get your schema up.
This should result in a working install on RHEL 3, OGo 1.1
Next on the hit parade, Windows account integration, but that will be a different article.
October 18, 2005
The Flu is not Overhyped
Instapundit passes on a reader remark.
No matter the method of flu death in the hypothetical, the reality is that we've got a bug that, in its limited spread to human populations, has a 55% mortality rate. These are real corpses and not theoretical deaths prevented by magical medical infrastructure.
If it retains that virulence, vast swathes of humanity will fall. They will fall in the Gap because there's no money, no infrastructure, no medicine available. They'll fall in the Core too, because we're going to run out of things. A rampaging flu virus is going to cause a huge surge demand in a field that Core-wide has come under either partial or full socialism, whether de-facto or de-jure. We've been eating our seed corn on the medical front for a long time now and we don't really know how bad the rot has progressed.
The truth is that we simply are not going to know how bad the flu is until it actually mutates and we know its characteristics. If its virulence is undiminished and its transmission follows standard human flu patterns, the statistics give pause. According to this CDC FAQ sheet:
Translating out from an estimated 300,000,000 residents of the US:
5% roughly equals 15,000,000
20% roughly equals 60,000,000
The normal human flu mortality rate is 0.06% to 0.24%
A mortality rate of 55% which is what we're getting with H5N1 would equal a US death toll of range of 8,250,000 to 11,000,000 if its virulence was unabated but its transmissability was brought up to H3N2 standards through random mutation or nihilistic genetic engineering.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that our medical system is going to save 90% of the deaths that would otherwise occur. That's 825,000 to 1.1 million dead and tens of millions in hospital. Do we have the beds? Do we have the home care substitutes? The logistics of saving these large numbers is daunting. We're not ready. We're not even close.
Yay! I'm back
Thanks to Bruce Rolston, (my blogfather) for fixing the little technical hiccup that's kept me from blogging the past few days.
October 13, 2005
Open Source Gets a Process
One of the weaknesses that has traditionally dogged the OSS field is that there are a number of important but nontechnical issues in developing software. These have tended to lag and the lags bring down the whole enterprise. Really good fonts is one example. Another example is in development process. It really is so bad that I played with the idea of reimplementing a really good one. Finally, software development process has gotten a major corporate boost. IBM is donating one of the best process systems out there, the Rational Unified Process to the OSS community. That's going to drive software development professionalism to greater heights across a wide variety of projects. The funny thing is, this is the very process that I had seriously considered reimplementing.
Kudos to IBM, Capgemini, BearingPoint, Covansys, Number Six Software, Ivar Jacobson International, Armstrong Process Group, Ambysoft, Object Mentor and Bedarra Research Labs, as well as Unisys, NTT Comware, Sogeti, Wind River, Jaczone and Object Management Group who are going forward with this project.
October 09, 2005
Arab Special Forces go to War
It seems that arab opportunists are smelling a shift in the wind and supporting Iraqi and Afghan governments by secretly sending special forces in support. This spells doom for the insurgencies as unofficial support routes for them largely depend on those same governments. Nobody's amused if their secret aid to rebels chews up their secret deployments of their most capable troops. The money will slow and stop as financial controls will against the rebels follow troop deployments.
It's one more in a growing list of signs that we're winning in these two fronts of the GWOT.
October 07, 2005
A Muppet Twosome
I always liked Rowlf and now I know why:
ALSO KNOWN AS:
LAST BOOK READ:
October 05, 2005
Hardly a Difference Between Taliban and Current Afghanistan
I picked up The Peking Duck into my regular blog reading because I think I should get more information about the PRC in my news diet. The header of the comments page was really optimistic:
Unfortunately, the actual policy doesn't follow the header. I'm banned. I still read the thing and occasionally try to comment on the odd chance that the ban might be lifted. Sigh, to no avail so far. Anyway, this article on Afghanistan got my fire up. Under the Taliban, articles critical of sharia were a quick way to commit suicide. Now, they're an entry into a slow, deliberate judicial process to determine whether a crime against the state religion was committed, something you might have easily seen in 19th century England.
My rejected comment below:
October 04, 2005
The RNC, Unindicted Coconspirator?
I just read the newest indictment of Tom Delay. I can't say why people are so excited about Tom Delay's indictment when the real news is that the Republican National Committee is essentially named as an undicted coconspirator.
The sentance is absurdly long but essentially breaks down to here is a conspiracy, here are some conspirators, and here is a list of people who committed overt acts in furtherance of the conspiratorial agreement. The key segment is below:
Funny enough, the list of people/groups that did overt acts that furthered the conspiracy does not include Tom Delay. The RNC, by the logic of the indictment, should be viewed as more culpable than Delay.
It is absurd that in this highly charged, cutthroat media environment, nobody seems to be covering this aspect, that a Texas state prosecutor has said that the RNC committed overt acts in furtherance of a felony and essentially is calling it an unindicted coconspirator in money laundering. How the court views the charge is yet to be seen (I suspect this indictment, like the last one, will not last long but we'll see) but that the RNC is named in the indictment but nobody covers it screams absolute media irresponsibility.
Donald Sensing's Missing the Changes
Donald Sensing thinks that GWB is Carteresque in that he's full of ideas but none of those ideas are long term or last much beyond January 2009.
Here's what I left in comments:
All throughout the government, throughout every government, in fact, the big problem has been that feedback loops are either nonexistent or seriously distorted, not fulfilling their proper role of moderating bad behavior and encouraging good. In fact, what feedback loops exist are more often just the reverse, encouraging the most perverse sort of behavior. "If you solve a problem, you lose your job" creates an ethic of making sure that no problems are ever actually solved. The proposition that this can ever be fully fixed is a central tenet of communism and the proposition that this can never be fully fixed is a central tenet of capitalism as well as conservatism.
This does not mean that all governments are doomed to the same level of incompetence. George W Bush is our first MBA president and all jokes aside about his intellectual skills, the man is working hard at creating a government system that is much better at imitating free market feedback loops than it was when he arrived in office. Those reforms are not sexy, they're not generally covered by the media, but they'll be paying benefits for the american people for decades out in the future.
October 03, 2005
Hot off the Presses
correction: It looks like There are multiple Exodus ministries. Bush's pick seems to have served with this one which targets ex-prisoners for help. The ministry work is still satisfying for social conservatives but not explosive at all for liberals. This definitely pushes the nomination over into the "stealth nominee" category.
President Bush's nominee for the USSC, Harriet Miers is being sold as a stealth nominee, with no appreciable record and an example of President Bush ducking controversy in his weakened political state. Don't believe it. Her bio says otherwise.
So far, only The American Thinker has caught on, at least as far as web available media outlets go. Miers sat on the board of Exodus Ministry some time ago. Unless there's another Exodus ministry with a different area of activity and it's all a big mix up, a firestorm of controversy is guaranteed. Andrew Sullivan will need to adjust his meds. Exodus Ministry specializes in helping homosexuals choose heterosexuality.
It's very unclear how economic conservatives fared in this pick but social conservatives have a great deal of cause to put on a small smile and gird themselves for a huge upcoming battle.
A product of BruceR and Jantar Mantar Communications, and affiliated contributors. Opinions expressed within are in no way the responsibility of anyone's employers or facilitating agencies and should by rights be taken as nothing more than one person's half-informed viewpoint on the world.