April 25, 2007

Letter to the Paper LV

Something I just submitted to Transterrestrial Musings

Out of the 18 Iraqi provinces, 3 kurdish ones have their greatest security threats being foreign incursion from Turkey and Iran. Terrorism is successfully kept out. 4 arab provinces are under local management and we rarely, if ever, do anything there. That's 7 down, 11 to go with the rest of the provinces in various stages along the road towards handover. I fully expect that when the balance is 10:8 instead of 7:11 that we're going to see a sea change in coverage because "a majority of Iraq is under local control and relatively quiet" and all the MSM is going to realize that if they don't get on the right side of this quickly, the deluge of broken credibility will very likely worsen and shorten their personal careers significantly.

I expect at least 3 more provinces to get handed over between now and the height of campaign season 2008. I'd like to think that at least 6 more would make the transition by then (obviating the need to explain Kurdistan's special situation in the stats). The defeatists have to change the natural progression of Iraqi government and security institution building and do it soon or they're going to be in deep trouble in 2008.

An Iraq where they're either begging us to be a tripwire against renewed war (a la our mission in Sinai) or we've successfully turned over a majority of the country and continuing to turn more over every month or two is a situation that can easily be shown to be a win. The Democrat party political investment in losing Iraq is so heavy that they can't reverse course in time for 2008. Iraq has to still look bad by then or they're in trouble which is why you see Harry Reid saying such imprudent things.

Posted by TMLutas at April 25, 2007 04:47 AM