March 20, 2006

The Death of UIA: Hurrah

The key threat to Iraq's cohesiveness has never been Kurdish separatism or Sunni insurgency. It has always been that the Shiites would maintain cohesiveness for too long and dominate the early government. When the Shia have a united front, they cannot be turned aside and that means that they don't have to engage in the give and take and decent treatment of minorities because they don't have the proper fear that tomorrow they will be in the minority. This dangerous period may soon be passing. We'll know for sure in a few days. If SCIRI bolts UIA it's dead, as dead as Poland's Solidarity is dead. Thank God for that. And this means that the new government is depending on Sunni votes, an entirely positive outcome which will hopefully accelerate the transition of Sunnis from out in the cold and shooting at the system to being players inside the system and fighting those who want to tear it down.

If UIA dies, Sadr has an important decision to make. Does he go in opposition or does he enter into a national unity government and get what power he can? Or does he go for the brass ring and go all the way outside with his military wing? The last would be an utterly foolish choice but his backers may not give him an option. It's always been a mystery to me how tightly Iran hold's Sadr's strings. Here's another opportunity to find out.

HT: The Fourth Rail

Posted by TMLutas at March 20, 2006 07:50 PM