February 27, 2006

Internet Adoption S Curve flattening

It's becoming clear that the Internet needs a new killer app. Recent data is pointing to a bit over a third of US households being simply uninterested in current Internet offerings. The glory days of ever increasing household penetration seem largely to be at an end with only 2% of the holdouts planning on getting service this year which means that at that pace, it'll take ~18 years to achieve full penetration.

It's clear that if the US is going to get fully wired up, something other than the web is going to have to be the driver. Yet so many people today think that the Web is the Internet that there's going to have to be some serious retooling of public perception before another killer app is going to be able to take over for the Web.

Maybe the adoption of IPv6 will allow for a rebranding. Supposedly there is a USG mandate to deploy by 2008 so explaining that retooling might allow for a new perception of Internet usefulness to take hold. The ability to deliver rock solid audio and video at decent frame rates should probably entice a few more people to take the plunge. High fuel prices will likely bring some in just to take advantage of telecommuting.

In the end, there will be a few who just decide to drop out, just like there are a few households that do not have TVs. I should know, I used to be in one of them...

Posted by TMLutas at February 27, 2006 12:56 AM