February 13, 2006

The UIA Strains

One of the things that is going to determine whether or not Iraq is going to succeed as a parliamentary democracy is the split of the Shia. This seems to be moving apace with the Sadrists pushing things to the edge of the toleration of the other members of the UIA and gaining their choice for prime minister by a 1 vote margin. You can have such close splits, you can personally black ball people out of the cabinet. What you can't do is to expect to carry it off over and over again without eventually splitting your coalition and creating a scenario where you find yourself in a lonely plurality, with an everybody else coalition forming against you.

There is nothing essential that the Sadrists provide that mandate that they be in the majority all the time. They are a faction, one among many, and they seem to be destined to play the role of splitting the Shia majority.

Posted by TMLutas at February 13, 2006 04:52 PM