August 21, 2004

To Gamble or Not To Gamble

My cousin is taking very imprudent bets. He offered 3:1 for Kerry to win in November to a roommate. He doesn't even like Kerry, he just is convinced that he's going to win. He was taken aback at the idea of Tradesports with its politics contracts currently running at 26:24 in favor of GWB. His roommate could bet on Bush at Tradesports, laying off the risk of the bet entirely, and make a profit no matter who won the election.

We banter back and forth on this idea that Kerry's got it in the bag so he got fed up and offered me 2:1. Now I've got to figure out whether I want to truly gamble or just take the guaranteed profit. What do you folks think?

On a broader note, Internet betting on anything is likely to kill the medium to long term amateur betting phenomenon because if you run out of alignment with what the experts are offering (in either direction) you're just giving your betting partner free money. Or maybe not, Vegas, after all, hasn't dried up yet.

Posted by TMLutas at August 21, 2004 09:21 AM