June 08, 2004

Energy War Redux

Greg Burch wonders why he is being misunderstood about his energy comments. Perhaps this will explain my take on his remarks:

We've got years, perhaps decades, of violent conflict with the Islamic world ahead of us. Sooner or later we'll have to realize that the only thing that is making this necessary is our dependence on oil from the Middle East. The culture that is attempting to destroy us is on artificial life support through the money pumped into the Middle East for oil. If that stopped, our enemy would wither and die, or change.

In the scenario of shrinking the Gap, the end of the age of oil would leave oil as a major component feedstock in the hydrogen economy. The arabs would be making just as much money as before, perhaps even more. It all depends on how much we grow the energy supplies via increased efficiency in the 3rd world, new energy sources, and increased exploitation of conventional sources on the one hand (driving down arab oil income). The other hand is how fast we shrink the Gap and bring on hungry new economies who thirst for energy and will bid up the price (improving oil incomes for OPEC). If winning the war is shrinking the Gap, the arabs make money maybe even more money than before. In this scenario, impoverishing the arabs isn't the goal, it's counterproductive as poor arabs are likely to be in the Gap.

Posted by TMLutas at June 8, 2004 08:47 PM