April 07, 2004

Sadr's Only Hope

I think that Sadr does have a hope of surviving this emerging debacle where his military forces are cut to shreds and, along with them, any influence he hopes to have. His one and only hope is that when he is taken into custody, he does a deal that exposes how Iran funded and supported him in violation of all norms of international law and says he has been acting under Iranian orders through his patron who stays in Iran.

Doing such a deal would not do much for his reputation but it might just keep him from getting put on death row once the US suspension of the death penalty comes undone. Sadr must realize by now that he's playing a losing hand and all he can hope to salvage is his life. If anything will keep Sadr alive, this will. It would move the debate from what is the US doing wrong in Iraq to provoke such rebellions to what punitive measures should be enacted to ensure that fomenting coups ceases to be an Iranian habit.

Posted by TMLutas at April 7, 2004 11:50 AM