November 30, 2003

A Hypothetical Scenario

Let's say that the Army came to Donald Rumsfeld and stated that we are able to maintain our present commitments but if something breaks loose, the cupboard will be bare. We'd be forced into a win-hold-win situation that would be risky and bloody. We need to grow two new divisions and shake loose a third from present duties.

Now let's say that Secretary Rumsfeld, true to his word that if the generals came to him and said they needed more troops he'd give it to them. He runs over to the White House and presents the request and is believed. The immediate question is whether this can get past Congress. The second question is if the request is made and gets bogged down, or worse, turned down, what does it do to the national security situation?

I think the vote counters would say that Congressional passage authorizing two extra divisions would be iffy and everybody would say that getting turned down would seriously increase the threat to US national security as every thug and bandit world-wide would get the idea that the US couldn't counter whatever they did due to military over-extension.

The political operation would ask, can we hold 'till 2005 and we have a more Republican Congress? The answer to that would be yes, but we'll bleed for it if somebody starts getting adventurous.

So out goes Colin Powell to sign some delaying agreements, out goes Donald Rumsfeld to smile, tell the literal truth, but never let the media know which shell has the pea or even that there is a shell without a pea. Out goes the President to play the highest stakes poker hand of this short century, and we all hold our breath and pray that they make it.

Steven Den Beste recently was asked "Could we fight a six front or ten front war?" His answer was "we can fight a ten front war, but we'd have to fight at least eight of them with nuclear weapons." Would George Bush push the button rather than let the tyrants win? That's where even my crystal ball refuses to go. I suspect that the scenarios where we would go nuclear have recently multiplied. That should give our opponents nightmares. I know that the possibility gives me some.

Somebody please shoot holes in my hypothetical, if you can. Unfortunately, it seems to line up with the generally known facts of the situation on the ground.

Posted by TMLutas at November 30, 2003 10:41 PM